The essay is entitled Money vs Fossil Energy.

New essay by David Holmgren brings fresh insights for empowering environmental and social activism in an age of climate change, peak oil and economic crisis.


"This essay provides a framework for understanding the ideological roots of the current global crisis that I believe is more useful than the now tired Left Right political spectrum. I use this framework to provide a commentary on current political machinations around Climate Change and Peak Oil. Building from the same energetic literacy that informs Permaculture and Future Scenarios, it challenges much of the strategic logic behind current mainstream climate change activism. Like the Future Scenarios work, this essay is intended to help environmental and social activists better avoid the obstacles to effective action in a chaotic age."

David Holmgren Winter Solstice 2010

Download the essay from the Writings page at the Holmgren Design Service website: www.holmgren.com.au.

My website:

sustainableland-use.org

was written prior to reading your Future Scenarios and becoming familiar with Permaculture concepts. And it appears my ideas fit into the "Green Tech" scenario for the USA.

You have done a good job of rounding out the possibilities and laying out other alternatives besides total collapse. Great Job!

Thank You!

david, your great old friend bill mollison says: choose your friends by what they do, not what they say...even if you don't like what they say! I choose you and su for what you do, even though I do like what you say...cheers bob

Thanks David,
for a very nicely organised precis.
I have been giving much thought on where transport is headed and have abandoned use of private cars as to see what is possible in terms of personal transport in an urban environment. It did not take long for me to build up from about 7km each way to 35km each way, provided the traffic wasn't intolerable. It took less than an hour and a half each way. I am 60 and only moderately fit, so I see no reason why that form of personal transport shouldn't be used. If no one had a car, everyone could afford a bike.
Also,
I have been a professional fisherman in my time and see no reason why some fishing could not be maintained without fossil fuels using sail and possibly a small use of electric motors.
I have been an advocate of urban orchards as long as I can remember and feel that every child in a temperate region should have the opportunity to become purple with mulberry juice on the way home from school.
Once again,
thank you for the excellent analysis

fantastic and informative site. long live life. vivre natura!

received today you future scenarios book. I know it's probably like the website, but I've enjoyed the website so much I want to add the book to my permaculture collection.

THANKS!

Yes! Eloquently stated with informed and balanced foresight.
I would welcome contact from a dedicated lifeboat community or a seriously aspiring earthsteward community outside of the US.

Very comprehensive and concise. A nice presentation!

Great site! I started out researching climate change and discovering that we face a huge challenge with no guarantee of success. As I continued to delve into matters, I came across peak oil, and soon came to realise that peak oil will get us long before climate change - and that the solution to both is the same: get off fossil fuels.

In reality, we need to make some fundamental changes in how we live. We simply cannot afford to keep living unsustainably. To help this along, I started the Go Green or Die site (http://www.briangordon.ca/)> Some find this idea extreme, but the reality is that we must live within our means or we are gone.

I fear that these scenarios may be too mild, and the reality may be nearly unimaginable. We may find ourselves inhabiting a planet no more hospitable than Mars (if the more severe climate impacts are realized) at which point, preserving a limited number of life forms and prototyping “hostile planet” shelter for the surviving population would preclude an orderly transition. In fact the likelihood of extinction is more probable…

Here is one supporting link: http://mb-soft.com/public3/disaster.html

While this one is rambling in presentation, and a little shrill in tone, you can’t blame the author too much – the conclusion IS very disturbing. And he seems to have done his homework…

Of course, things aren’t going to get that bad (he chuckles confidently…) we’ll just wind our civilization down a little and 4 or 5 billion people will quietly lay down and cease being a problem to the more enlightened ones who survive to carry on…

We can only hope that the more severe scenarios are in error, as planning for extinction is a fruitless exercise, so with that in mind, a more positive future, where some of the benefits of our current civilization are retained features in my planning,.

But, a reliance on the stability of centrally managed resources is probably unwise, so a lifestyle combining a permaculture approach, combined with self reliance, automation, machine building capability and retention of technical knowledge. As a return to a pre-technical lifestyle looks un-appealing and eventually lethal to the old man I will become…

So while we are still “Rich” to the degree that I can order a sophisticated product from halfway around the planet and have a reasonable expectation of getting in my hands in a week or less I intend to build a system of manufacturing machines that can be built by anyone with the will to do so – eventually I hope to us recovered trash (beer cans and window frames, engine blocks and miscellaneous junk) as feedstocks to harvest the materials to build all the essential bits and pieces to keep a technical farmstead running
The concept starts with these: http://www.cubespawn.com to make: first, their own parts and then parts for pumps, pipe, hardware, saws, hammers and all the complex bits one needs to keep a technical village running…