Hi David,

Very good analysis of the energy problem. You will see mine - Food and Energy in Japan in the 21st Century - on my website. I let the chairman of the Mottainai Society (a kind of Japanese ASPO) know about your site as this society is interested in EPRs (EROEIs) and I wanted him to note your EPR cliff graph. He liked it and liked your site and also watched your permaculture video on your other site. He has sent a message to the whole society introducing your Future Scenarios so do not be surprised if the hit nimber from Japan jumps a little.

Also I have just finished reading "Dirt" by David R. Montgomery and it is a good historical outline of how soil erosion has spelt the end of just about every civilisation so far. He goes on to recommend stewardship of the soil through alternative and organic practices, although he doesn't actually mention permaculture.

Good luck with everything.
Tony

Leslie Viljoen,
Thank your for comments about the critical issue of nutrients in sustainable food production. I agree that recycling of all human waste (via dry compost and other appropriate technologies) is an essential factor in any future sustainable food production, while trees and other biological systems for mining nutrients help counter inexorable losses. I think the area required for human support is one that remains open to debate due the many factors involved, but that it is clear that the area under household direct control for many urbanites is not enough. Nevertheless the rapid build up in capacity for garden agriculture as part of general rebuild of household and community economies is a central strategy for supporting ourselves and sustaining society in a post oil world.

While I agree about the importance of such considerations, there are many other factors that will determine the viability of food supply systems in the short, medium and even long term. Firstly, any half functioning post oil society suffering from stress due to food shortage and or nutritional decline would have a lot of surplus resources that could be diverted from supporting unnecessary consumption. One example I think about is the freeing of arable land, water and fertilisers currently used to produce cotton that could be progressively phased out (and only partly replaced by hemp), because nearly 1 billion people (who consume most of the cotton production, probably have enough clothes to last them at least 10 years. Alternatively in more severe collapse scenarios, the salvage of resources will continue to subsidise capacity to produce food for some time. A minor example might be the nutrients tied up in amenity landscapes of "leafy" suburbs, pest animals and pets collectively represent food and nutrients to support future food production. More fundamentally industrial salvage and retrofit could allow society to do some things (eg harvest rainwater) more easily allowing resources to be focused on collecting nutrients from sites of concentration (eg coastal seaweed, mineral quarries etc)

But in any major post peak social and economic stresses, lack of skills, seed, appropriate tools, transport logistics and security are likely to impact more severely on the food supply system before the problems you raise. If everytime you raise chickens, someone with and M16 comes along as says that you have their chickens, then you give up raising chickens.

My point is that complex dynamic systems running into and overshooting limits respond in complex ways. On that subject I have just been reviewing the Limits To Growth scenarios (in The Thirty Year Update pub. 2004). I think it is still one of the best explorations of these complexities that are, of course, one of the most fundamental sources for anyone trying to understand these issues as part of developing workable strategies.

Just found this site from the recommendation of a friend. Your presentation is one of the most level-headed and rational assessments of the situation I've read. Thank you for all your work putting this together, I will recommend this site to anyone I come across who is beginning to understand and more importantly attempt to PREPARE for the multitude of changes to come.

Hi!

I have been reading hundreds of articles and publications on organic farming, permaculture and agriculture.
It seems to me that organic farming and permaculture can't be sustainable because elements are removed from the soil, go into people's bodies and then flushed away to sewage processing plants and dumped into the sea. Permaculture that includes "humanure" seems
almost sustainable - as long as trees are used to continually draw any leeched elements from deep in the soil (though this takes a lot of time).

Also, in a post-oil world, how will the humanure get to the crops? Will we all need to grow food forests on our own land?
According to my calculations we will need 2500m2 each to produce enough calories. A tiny percentage of us have properties that size in the suburbs, let alone the cities. I am trying to grow a diverse food garden of my own with over 40 species planted so far, but even without
the house, our property could barely feed one person.

Please, if you have the time, could you let me know how our food supply could be truly "sustainable"? Nowhere have I read of a way for all of us to eat once the oil runs out.

Here's one reference about the problem: http://www.countercurrents.org/goodchild220907.htm

Le slie

Hi David.
As much as I would like too I don't think I am going to be able to make it to Rainbow Valley farm to spend the day with you and other driven people. However, I have a T'shirt I want you to have. I will send it up to Trish to give to you. I just ask if you prefer medium or large.

Kind regards,
Daryl Neal
Transition Towns NZ

David,
I finished reading the site's chapters yesterday. I found the four scenarios very helpful in providing a framework for thinking about the future.
I have found it very difficult to discuss sustainability (your Green Tech scenario) with people, meeting much resistance. The energy descent scenarios seem to make the most sense logically given the intersection of peak oil and climate change. I see the descent scenarios receiving even more resistance than sustainability does.
Events are overtaking our respective societies ability to adopt new ways of thinking and living. What ever happens, transition efforts will see great difficulties. Practical considerations include falling stock values and persistent economic contraction. The current recession may be the start.
Thank you for your pioneering work. The Earth Steward and Lifeboats scenarios along with permaculture design provide me with additional promising ways to envision a positive way through what will be a very difficult transition to a low energy future.

Hello David-
saludos desde México -

Amongst every days news about the unfolding financial meltdown, the dramatic decline of Mexican oil extraction was about to be forgotten. But the recent news about new strange diseases, may highlight this issue again.

Until recently, for the wider public at least, Peak Mexico and its consequences have remained outside the general focus. Thus the rapidly changing economic and socio-political context in this large and diverse country, within the last two and a half years, comes apparently “by surprise”. But with an admitted 9.2% oil production decline in 2008 (some analysts say, it’s more), Mexico is somewhat a showcase of how Peak Oil and fast energy descent may play out in the so-called “emerging” countries.

The fact, that the influenza virus apparently originated in Mexico (ironically incubated in a huge swine-factory owned by a large US-Company) should be seen in this context.

Getting back to your szenario planning model, with such a dramatic energy decline, it seems, that for Mexico there are just two szenarios left, which makes "planning" maybe a bit easier.

There are elements of both lifboat and earth stewardship szenario response right in place. More details about mexican realities, challenges and oportunities for this transision I hope to be able to post soon in an article to EnergyBuletin

regards

holger

waltzing matilda for more

banjo was there at the billabong
he skipped across the bank
and diamonds were dancing in the very place
the jolly swagman sank

give me redgum amphibiosis
whose branches reach along
to a coolibah mythical romantic dream
that an australian made into a song

fallen branches crocodiles
protruding leaves as frogs
the light skips over fantastic!
to the stillness of fallen logs

the breeze stirs up a reedy chat
and its ripples protect the jewels
and a dance done on the redgum bough
reflects the quivering pools

banjo was here! I said again
to visitors filing past
how much further to the top?
they had to get there fast!

come dangle those neglected white things
at the south end of your legs
the mountain top gets closer
once the weight is off your pegs

the billabong's a healer!
really? I heard one say
with a knee jerk: the well of life?
can it extend my dying day?

I dunno about that when you'll throw in your hat
but it seems to me, to eager ears
if you punch and roll with the bushland
you'll get great value for your years

oh she said disappointed
realising she was still gunna die
c'mon let's get it over with
to the summit! with a sigh

they'll probably be here
I heard her say
by the time we get back down
matilda her friend would have liked to indulge
but she rolled the legs of her jeans back down

just then a hospitable wattle bird
spake its flautish song of greetin'
hello matilda you're welcome!
to sit on my bank with ya feet in

to come or to go is the question to know
to have less and the peace to explore
or perpetually seek all mountains that peak
and keep waltzing, matilda, for more

Great stuff.
I must mention that I found some of your sentences a challenge, however your unity and clarity of concept (energy resource) is liberating; how you connect human history to all the important current issues surpasses all that I have read.
I will get the message out to those around me.

David Avelar,
Thank you for your comments. I was not familiar with the IPCC scenarios at the time of writing and only now have the most general understanding of them. I think your comparison is interesting; but the big difference of course is that the IPCC scenarios all assume growth at various rates. All my scenarios assume contraction at varying rates. Decline in net energy available to humanity, results in relocalisation in some form (ie global integration breaks down) although in the Green Tech scenario, retention of communications technology allows global awareness and connectedness to continue to grow. In Brown Tech, the communications technology is present but used to reinforce national identity.

The IPCC scenarios do not appear to include include active response to climate change and are used to generate climate change as outcomes. My scenarios use climate change as a primary driver of the scenarios but are framed assuming a loose and uncertain relationship between specific emission levels and climate change where only gross changes in human emissions generate differences in actual climate conditions. But the relationship is not linear or clear reflecting uncertainty about likely natural positive feedbacks from factors other than human emissions. At least my Green Tech scenario is partly driven by climate change awareness and the Brown Tech is partly driven by response to climate change disasters. Given the above caveats I would say there are some similarities between the IPCC and my scenarios but I think I would relate them as follows;

A2 Brown Tech
B1 Green Tech
B2 Earth Steward

Of course the match is not very good.

I don't deal with anything like A1 and the IPCC doesn't deal with anything like Lifeboat.

Allo David,

I´m a Climate Change (CC) researcher and a Permaculture (PC) student. I´ve been trying to connect this both topics during my research because I thing there is a very powerful synergy between both. At one hand we’ve the Problem (CC) and in the other there is the possible solution (PC).

In CC we use the “Scenarios” to project the future emission and forecast the future climate change, as you know. The IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios (http://www.grida.no/publications/other/ipcc_sr/?src=/climat e/ipcc/emission/) is the common tool to do this kind of exercise as global team.

As you may know there is 4 family scenarios (A1, A2, B1 and B2).

I would like to know, if you can relate your 4 scenarios with the IPCC 4 scenarios.

You agree with:
A1 – Brown Tech
A2 - Earth Steward
B1 - Green Tech
B2 - Lifeboats

Thank you for sharing your thoughts, ideas, and principles…

David

Hi David,

I am a student of Virginia Solomon's Diploma of Permaculture at Eltham College. We are using this web site as study material for our discussion tomorrow. Thank you for re-invigorating my interest, commitment & drive to create a world that is able to deal creatively with change, whilst respecting their fellow man, beast & flora. After today's reading, I am ready to take action. I look forward to working with you in the future. Warm Regards, Megan Hannes-Paterson