Mapping the Cultural Implications of Peak Oil and Climate Change
Earth Steward
Earth Steward: Bottom Up Rebuild
In this scenario the decline in oil production after a peak in total liquids production before 2010 is at the extreme end of authoritative predictions (about 10%)49An increasing number of peak oil experts are suggesting the current peak of crude production in May 2005 may mark the beginning of a plateau that will end about 2010 in an accelerating decline and is followed by an even faster decline in gas production plus a simultaneous peak in coal production.
The shock to the world’s fragile financial systems is overwhelming, resulting in severe economic depression and perhaps some further short, sharp resource wars.
This economic collapse and these political stresses, more than the actual shortage of resources, prevents the development of more expensive and large scale non-renewable resources that characterise the Brown Tech scenario or the renewable resources and infrastructure of the Green Tech. International and national communications networks break down.
Electricity grids become non-functional as cost and availability of fuels and spare parts reduce production and lack of paying businesses and customers reduces revenues. International tensions remain but capacity of stronger countries to use military force is constrained by unreliable energy and parts supplies and the strong evidence that war uses more resources than it captures. Global warming is slowed dramatically and reversed by the collapse of the global consumer economy and absence of large scale investment in new energy infrastructure.
Horse drawn bus with the town of Santi Spiritus Cuba 2007 using modern pnumatic tyres and springs but simple wheel brakes.
In the Earth Steward scenario, urban areas will be small and quiet enought that horses will again play an important role in the more limited transport of people and goods. The ready availability of metals and modern material from salvage will create hybids between traditional and industrial technologies.
There is a radical reduction in mass mobility of both people and goods. The food supply chain is severely affected both on farms and through the distribution system. Energy intensive large scale farming supplying central marketing chains is the worst affected leading to abandonment of even highly productive land. Shortages lead to rationing, black markets, and riots for food and energy.
Increases in crime, malnutrition and disease lead to a rising death rate accelerated in some countries by epidemics and pandemics that have a major impact on social and economic capacity. The collapse in the tax base available to national and state governments reduces their power and even city level restructuring of infrastructure is difficult, but local government retains some degree of effective services, decision making and possibly democracy.
Splitting and stacking firewood for winter Pommerland village north Germany. 2005
In the Earth Steward scenario, firewood will regain its role as the most common fuel for cooking, heating and hot water in cold and temperate climates. Reafforestation will be essential in regions without forests, most reafforestaion will be by natural regeneration typically of weedy exotic species on excess agricultural land that cannot be managed with limited human, animal and machine power.
Collapse of larger businesses and the difficulties in maintaining urban infrastructure leads to a hollowing out of the cities. Loss of jobs and houses leads to migration of people out of cities to smaller towns, villages and farms with more robust local economies able to take advantage of the influx of labour. Impacts and demands on local soil, water and forest resources increases, to severe levels in many poor countries as people move out of the cities to harvest fuel, wildlife and restart food production. In long affluent countries, the underuse of local biological resources in the late 20th century provides some buffer against these impacts.
Large numbers of homeless exurbanites form a new underclass lacking even the skills of poverty.
Large numbers of homeless ex-urbanites form a new underclass lacking even the skills of poverty. They provide basic labour in exchange for food and accommodation on farms needing the labour. Surviving structures of power may adapt to impose a more feudal structure based on concentrated control of productive farms and forests and built assets in large farming estates.
Volunteers and local workers hoeing weeds between corn crop Mariza Bahia Brasil 2007
In the Earth Steward scenario working together in groups becomes the norm to deal with long and arduous tasks, maintain social connections and group security in dangerous conditions.
Organic and small farmers, close to markets and able to make use of labour and animal power, thrive (to the extent security allows) in a context of relatively benign and slow climate change. An explosion of home businesses based on building and equipment retrofit, maintenance and salvage starts to build a diversified economy. Further afield biofuels from crop waste allow farmers to continue to use machinery while wood and charcoal gasification based on regrowth forest resources near settlements and towns provide an increasing proportion of limited transport fuel. This small business growth in turn provides a new tax base for some form of effective local government. In some places new bioregional governments institute land reform and debt cancellation following collapse of financial institutions and central banks, allowing people to stay on their properties.
Tucano town market in semi arid zone of rural Bahia Brasil. 2007 With limited access to transport, weekly town markets make scence because they bring all the buyers and sellers together one day of the week.
In the Earth Steward scenario commerce is concentrated in town markets because of transport efficiencies for people and goods.
Suburban landscapes around smaller cities and regional towns with greater social capital are transformed with a booming and relatively egalitarian society sustained by bio-intensive/permaculture farming and retrofitting and reuse supported by resources from both the immediate rural hinterland and inner urban salvage.
This ruralisation of suburban landscape to produce food on all available open space, private and public provides most of the fresh fruit and vegetables, dairy and small livestock products. Local currencies, food, car and fuel co-ops, community supported agriculture all grow rapidly. Informal and household economies provide an increasing proportion of basic needs as corporate and government systems fail to deliver.
Small goat dairy in central Chile. 2007 Agricultural enterprise typical of the informal economy of Latin America that supplies local rural consumers outside of the regulated and centralised industrial production
In the Earth Steward scenario, businesses of this nature provide the most formal and taxable sector of very local and simple economies
Around the larger cities especially in countries where social capital and community capacity is severely eroded, most of these new developments are in gated communities providing the basic needs and security of their residents with trade outside the community being more difficult or dangerous. Outside the gated communities salvage, fuel harvesting and animal husbandry are the main economic activities with trade controlled by gangs and local warlords.
While the impacts on people and local environments of this scenario are severe there is also a cultural and spiritual revolution as people are released from the rat race of addictive behaviours
While the impacts on people and local environments of this scenario are severe, in previously affluent countries at least, there is also a cultural and spiritual revolution as people are released from the rat race of addictive behaviours and begin to experience the gift of resurgent community and the simple abundance of nature to provide for basic needs.The biggest difference from the Green and Brown Tech scenarios is that the rebuilding and stabilisation is no longer based on dreams of sustainability or restoring the old system. Instead people accept that each generation will have to face the challenges of further ongoing simplification and localisation of society as the fossil resource base continues to decline. This simplification in the material domain is seen as the opportunity for growth in the spiritual domain. There is a resurgence in leadership by women and a celebration of the feminine in nature and people. “Bottom Up Rebuild” summarises this scenario by emphasising the new growth from biological and community foundations. In some ways this scenario might be considered as the archetypal one of the Energy Descent future and the one in which permaculture principles and strategies are most powerfully applied.
Image Gallery
Simple compost toilet constructed from pickle barrell, Adelaide rental house permaculture retrofit.
In the Earth Steward scenario creative reuse and salvage of industrial materials will be a major livelihood and a way of life. Recycling of humanure will be a widespead and critical activity in building fertiliy and productivity of garden agriculture and maintaining health though mineral dense food. Communities that don’t recycle humanure will suffer from escalating health problems and reduced live expectancy. Those that dont do safely with proper composting practises will suffer period infectious disease epidemics that will kill babies and old people.
Traditional palm frond roof support on eucalypt poles (5yr old) rural Cuba 2007. The fast and staight growth of the eucalyptus exceed any local native species so are widely planted and used throughout Latin America. (Also they are not subject to the lyctid borer that is so problematic in Australia)
In the Earth Steward scenario, exotic species that were typically introducted for industrial uses will provide important new renewable resources once industrial materials are unavailable and/or expensive. Fast grown forest species such as eucalyptus than can be used as round poles with minimal processing will replace sawn timber for most uses.
Horse drawn bus with the town of Santi Spiritus Cuba 2007 using modern pnumatic tyres and springs but simple wheel brakes.
In the Earth Steward scenario, urban areas will be small and quiet enought that horses will again play an important role in the more limited transport of people and goods. But the ready availability of metals and modern material from salvage will create hybids between traditional and industrial technologies.
Volunteers and local workers hoeing weeds between corn crop Mariza Bahia Brasil.
In the Earth Steward scenario working together in groups becomes the norm to deal with long and arduous tasks, maintain social connections and group security in dangerous conditions.
Polyculture seed mixture ready for using in late seaon sowings at Mariza Bahia Brazil.
In the Earth Steward scenario seeds of hardy locally adapted food crops become a key resource that is saved and traded within and between households and communities. Seeds begin to be revered as a sacred aspect of earth spirituality.
Tucano town market in semi arid zone of rural Bahia Brasil. With limited access to transport, weekly town markets make sence because they bring all the buyers and sellers together one day of the week.
In the Earth Steward scenario commerce will again mostly be by town markets because of transport efficiencies for people and goods.
Splitting and stacking firewood for winter Pommerland village north Germany.
In the Earth Steward scenario, firewood will regain its role as the most common fuel for cooking, heating and hot water in cold and temperate climates. Reafforestation will be essential in regions without forests, most reafforestaion will be by natural regeneration typically of weedy exotic species on excess agricultural land that cannot be managed with limited human, animal and machine power.
Design principles card game as final event on Brasilia advanced principles course.
In the Earth Steward scenario community and group processes will be important in decision making, allocation of resources and building a new culture focusing of spiritual renewal through nature.
Corn storage rack designed to allow wind to dry the cobs, organic farm Croatia 2005.
In the Earth Steward scenario storage of grains will become localised on farms and communities. Protection of grain stores from rodents, pests (and theft) will be important but easier to manage using industrial container unavailable to pre-industrial societies.
Preserves in cellar at fully food self sufficient Planinca eco community Slovenia.
In the Earth Steward scenario, home and small scale commercial preservation using traditional low tech methods such as bottling and drying will largely replace trade from regions with different growing climates. Mountain regions with many climates in a small region may be an exception.
Gang sawmill in Vransko, Slovenia powered by electric motor, (state of the art technology from 1900) Very quiet and less dangerous than circular.
In the Earth Steward scenario, older slower but high quality technology that is still repairable will continue to be used long after more modern technology has been abandoned as unrepairable. The gang saw example can be retrofitted to run off direct drive from a water mill if electric power is unavailable.
Farmer sharpening scyth while cutting meadow hay on small areas not accessable by tractor, rural Slovenia.
In the Earth Steward scenario, traditional tools are revived as an essential component of small scale agriculture.
Home killing of animals Melliodora.
In the Earth Steward scenario home and local slaughter of animals for meat and hides regains its traditonal role in self reliant rural households and communes.
Traditional charcoal kiln on village roadside Fujino, Japan. Oak and bamboo fuel from local managed Satyoma forest. Condenser flue (up hillside) used to recover creosote from flue gases.
In the Earth Steward scenario, charcoal will be an important and high value, smokeless fuel that can transported from forested regions to nearby agricultural and small setlements for cooking and heating. Creosote is valuable as a wood preservative and feedstock for refinement of other chemicals.
Garden agriculture at Gaia Ecovillage Navaro Argentina. Cob and Thatch roof building is seed bank with optimal conditions for long term storage of vegetable, fruit and seeds of other bioregionally useful plants (without the need for any mechanical air conditioning)
In the Earth Steward scenario, seed harvesting, storage and exchange is one of the most important economic activities which will include trade over longer distances. Seeds are also the central focus of an emerging earth spirituality that reflects their status in traditional agrarian societies.
Small goat dairy in central Chile. Agricultural enterprise typical of the informal economy of Latin America that supplies local rural consumers outside of the regulated and centralised industrial production
In the Earth Steward scenario, businesses of this nature provide the most formal and taxable sector of very local and simple economies.
Weeding row crops with plow pulled by mules Zacatecas Mexico.
In the Earth Steward scenario working animals and simple technolgies again become important to maintaining agricultural production beyond the garden scale.