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Future Scenarios

Mapping the Cultural Implications of Peak Oil and Climate Change

  • Future Scenarios
  • About

About

  • RELAUNCH 2021
  • 1. INTRODUCTION
    • 1.1 Energy & History
    • 1.2 Then Next Energy Transition
  • 2. ENERGY FUTURES
    • 2.1 Four Energy Futures
    • 2.2 Views of the Future
      • Human Capital
      • Collapse
      • Energy Descent
      • Permaculture
  • 3. CLIMATE & PEAK OIL
    • 3.1 Climate Change
    • 3.2 Energy and Reserve Production Peaks
    • 3.3 Collapsing Oil Exports
    • 3.4 Net Energy Return
    • 3.5 Associated Issues
  • 4. DESCENT SCENARIOS
    • 4.1 Scenario Planning
    • 4.2 Interaction of Peak Oil and Climate
    • 4.3 Four Descent Scenarios
      • Brown Tech
      • Green Tech
      • Earth Steward
      • Lifeboats
      • Summary
  • 5. REACTIONS
    • 5.1 Depressing and Positive Scenarios
    • 5.2 Different Scenarios in Different Places
    • 5.3 Stepped Descent
    • 5.4 Nested Scenarios
    • 5.5 Relevance of Mainstream Sustainability
    • 5.6 Relevance of Principles
    • 5.7 Permaculture Meta-scenarios
  • 6. CONCLUSION
  • AFTERWORD 2021

About

David Holmgren is a futurist and the co-originator of the permaculture concept with Bill Mollison.

Of his best known book, Permaculture: Principles and Pathways Beyond Sustainability, Transition Towns concept originator Rob Hopkins has said, “it is no exaggeration to call this the most important book published in the last 15 years.” 

For more information visit www.holmgren.com.au 

Credits 

All text and photos by David Holmgren unless otherwise stated.

Website produced by Flowji.

Banner animation by Stu at www.thingsimade.com  

Gallery photos tweaked by Oli. 

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RELAUNCH 2021

This work was written and published in May 2008 as a free-access online essay. A year later it was published…

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